In NFL betting, the phrase "fading the public" refers to betting against the side most bettors support. It is often a popular approach among professional sports bettors based on the assumption that the public often makes incorrect predictions and that the most successful bettors are those willing to go against the grain.
Several studies support the idea that fading the public can be a profitable long-term strategy. However, it’s important to note that it doesn’t guarantee sports gambling success and should not be done blindly.
Based on the information I have collected, as of Thursday, September 28, here are the most popular NFL sides for Week 4:
1) Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 to cover against the New York Jets
In some books, more than 93% of the money and tickets favor the Chiefs, causing the spread to increase from -7 to -9.5. Finding bettors who support the Zach Wilson-led Jets in this matchup is difficult. New York has a tremendous defense, but can their offense keep up? Most bettors seem to doubt it.
2) Philadelphia Eagles -8 to cover against the Washington Commanders
The Eagles are significant favorites against the Commanders and appear to have both sharps and casual bettors’ support. The Eagles will be at a rest disadvantage after playing on Monday Night, where they covered with a 25-11 win against the Bucs. Most of the public also backed the Eagles in that win. Philadelphia is also 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games.
The Commanders are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games but suffered a 37-3 defeat at home against Buffalo last Sunday, a game where the Commanders were also a trendy but losing "sharp" play.
3) San Francisco 49ers -14 to cover vs. Arizona Cardinals
Despite the Cardinals being 3-0 ATS and coming off a 28-16 victory as double-digit underdogs against the Cowboys last week, the public still doesn’t believe in them. Most bettors expect the 49ers to win convincingly, especially with the extra rest.
|San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals pointspread -855 being hammered by 95.8% of the betting public.|
4) Minnesota Vikings -4 to cover vs. Carolina Panthers
After a 13-4 record last regular season, the Vikings risk losing their fourth game this season in just Week 4. The public anticipates that the Panthers will be the team that falls to 0-4 and fails to cover in this matchup.
5) Jacksonville Jaguars -3 to cover vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Jaguars came into the season with lofty expectations but now are at risk of falling to 1-3. The public likes the Jags to bounce back in London. However, the line has moved from -3.5 to -3 at several major sportsbooks, which can often indicate that some sizable money from respected bettors may be on the Falcons.
Thursday/Sunday/Monday night lights ✨
— NFL (@NFL) September 28, 2023
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| Title: NFL Week 4 Public Betting Preview (To Fade or Follow?
| Author: David Marotta
| Date: September 28th, 2023