Ed Welch
The biggest betting day of the year is set with the Kansas City Chiefs facing off against the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV on Feb. 2.
Odds hit the NFL sports handicapping service Sunday evening, including the Over/Under total which opened at 53.5 at most sportsbooks. In the day since, tickets on the Over are stacking up and books are making a move with their total, climbing as high as 54.5 points.
Before you bet on the total from Super Bowl LIV, take a deeper at both teams and have they’ve fared for Over/Under bettors this NFL season.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs offense has been bailing out their defense so far in the postseason. Kansas City gave up 24 straight points to open the Divisional Round matchup with the Houston Texans and was down 10-0 to the Tennessee Titans in the AFC Championship Game before Patrick Mahomes and the offense stepped in.
The Chiefs have exploded for scores of 51 and 37 points in those playoff games, leading to two straight paydays for those holding a ticket on the Over. Kansas City’s offense has been rounding into form since Mahomes returned from a knee injury in Week 10 and is averaging almost 32 points per game since.
That scoring pace would instantly make bettors think of Over plays but the defense, for its faults in the past two postseason performances, has played well down the stretch of the season.
Kansas City’s defense tightened in the final weeks of the regular season, allowing an average of just 11.5 points over their last six contest. That effort, from a unit that ranked 17th in total yards allowed per game, kept final scores below the total in five of those final six regular season games. On the season, KC finished with a 10-8 Over/Under record.
San Francisco 49ers
The core of the 49ers has been the defense, which was extremely strong through the first 13 weeks of the play. San Francisco was limiting opponents to 15 points per game with a combination of pass pressure and tight coverage in the secondary, rankings as the best pass defense in the NFL.
The 49ers posted a 5-8 Over/Under record in that span but injuries would alter that trend in last four games of the season in which the defense allowed more than 32 points per game and the team finished with a 3-0-1 Over/Under record in that span.
However, after earning the top seed in the NFC and getting a bye week in the opening round of the playoffs, those injured players have returned and had an instant impact in postseason wins over Minnesota and Green Bay, allowing a total of only 30 points so far in the playoffs, going 1-1 Over/Under.
The 49ers offensive playbook also helps with the Under results, handing off the football on more than 51% of its snaps. San Francisco rushed for 4.7 yards per carry on the season and was among the best teams in time of possession, hanging on the ball for extended drives and not allowing opposing offenses to have a chance to find the scoreboard.
That said, San Francisco’s scoring attack has the ability to break off big plays and is averaging 32.3 points per game over its last six outings, including the two playoff wins. On the season, the 49ers own a 9-8-1 Over/Under record.
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